It is possible to forecast earthquakes

It is possible to forecast earthquakes

I must at the outset admit that I am only a writer, I am no geologist but I have a very deep interest in seismology and earthquakes. I have studied earthquakes and to some extent cyclones with obsessive fascination. I wish to share my observations and hope that geologists and seismologists will be able to work on what I suppose to be a vague theory.

Big magnitude earthquakes occur either in the early hours of or atleast before noon on the 26^th of the month or atleast around the 26^th of the month. 11^th and 26^th of the months seem to be favourites for release of seismic energy / rupture on fault lines). A startling realisation that the Bam earthquake (26.12.2003, Iran), Bhuj earthquake (26.01.2001, Bhuj, Gujarat) and the Andaman Sumatra Earthquake (26.12.2004, Sumatra) occurred in the wee hours or atleast before noon led me to the historical database of earthquakes on USGS; It became apparent that the Bio-Bio earthquake occurred on 27^th of February 2010, the Good Friday Great Alaska Sound Earthquake happened on 28^th March 1964, and so on…

The 60 years geological cycle also needs to be studied with seriousness after the Asian Tsunami of December 2004. 62 years before that a similar destructive tsunami following a mega earthquake had smashed Indonesia and Andaman Nicobar Islands… in 1942. And approximately 60 years before that another great seismic event occurred… the cataclysmic eruption of the Krakatau volcano in Indonesia led to violent tsunamis in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and resulted in short term climate change. Similarly the Chile earthquake of 27th February 2010 – that is - the Bio-Bio earthquake - occurred almost 60 years after the devastating M 9.5 earthquake of May 22nd 1960. So will the Alaskan Mega Earthquake of March 27 1964 with a magnitude of 9.2 repeat its scale of destruction in 2024? It doesn’t hurt to be prepared right? 

Similarly the 11^th of any month is also a favourite for release of seismic energy. M 7, M 6 earthquakes have occurred on or around the 26^th of the month. The following data has been sourced from USGS’s historical earthquake database.

·         26 December 1939 Turkey (M.7.8),

·         26th November 1942 Turkey (M 7.1)

·         26.May 1957 Turkey (M 7.1)

·         26th April 1959 (Taiwan region (M 7.5)

·         26th January 2001 Bhuj Earthquake (M 7.6)

·         26th May 2003 - Seven Trees, California - M 3.8,

·         26th May 2003 Halmahera Indonesia ( M 7.0),

·         26th May 2003 Muir Beach California (M.3.8),

·         26th December 2003 Bam Earthquake (M 6.6),

·         26th December 2004 Sumatran Mega Earthquake (M 9.1),

·         26 February 2005 Simeulue Indonesia (M 6.8),

·         26. September 2005 Peru (M 7.5)

·         26th May 2006 Java Indonesia (M 6.3)

·         26th December 2006 - Taiwan region - M 6.9, 

·         26th December 2006 - Taiwan region - M 7.1,

·         26th July 2007 Molucca Sea (M 6.9)

·         26th September 2007 Papua New Guinea, (M 6.8)

·         26th December 2007 Alaskan Earthquake, (M6.4)

·         26th April 2008 Nevada USA (M 5.0)

·         27th February 2010 Bio-Bio Chile (M 8.8)

I have calibrated the following data from Google Earth / Digital Globe

·         28.09.1998 Java Indonesia (M 6.6)

·         12^th September 2007 Southern Sumatra ( M 8.5)

·         13^th February 2001 Southern Sumatra ( M 7.4)

·         14^th August 1999 Southern Sumatra (M 6.4)

·         12^th December 1992, Flores, Indonesia (M 7.5)

·         26^th January 2006 Banda Sea (M 7.6)

It does not mean earthquakes do not strike on other days. Neither does it mean that smaller magnitude earthquakes do not occur on 11^th or 26^th of the months or around these days. They do. But the likelihood of big earthquakes striking on or around the 11^th and 26^th of the months is higher… going by the database of earthquakes.

In today’s advanced technological era it should be possible for seismologists and geologists to measure the build-up of seismic pressure in fault zones regularly. Monitoring the build-up of seismic pressure should be – logically speaking – able to pint the likely rupture points or the epicentre, and the likely date of rupture. Given that the dates are presupposed to be either 11^th or 26^th of a month if vigorous monitoring is undertaken it should be possible to calibrate a potential rupture zone and an educated guestimate of the magnitude of an earthquake.

Of course there are other pointers too.  Volcanic eruptions are preceded by a series of seismic tremors as we learnt in Iceland last year before the Bardarbunga volcano exploded in August 2014. Other observers like Dr. Arunachalam Kumar theorise that mass strandings of cetaceans on continental shelves are a sure and ominous sign of an imminent earth

Source: GVP / Digital Globe / Smithsonian Institutions

quake.  There are documentation available that animal behaviour can be an early warning – a theory that has very recently gained scientists’ acquiescence. Oceanographers are researching about the change in ions above the oceans before a tsunamigenic earthquake is likely to strike.

Oceanographers in India’s INCOIS have succeeded in calibrating the estimated wave heights, time of arrival and path of a tsunami for earthquakes around the Indian coasts. They have done this by calibrating the latitude-longitude against the bathymetric profile of the seas around India. With such advances made all that is needed is political will to back the scientists. By utilising scientific applications, human development can be assured for it mitigates disaster risk… the kind less resilient communities like in Nepal or coastal fishers are ideal candidates for …

Critique, feedback and discussions welcome.

Thank you.  

Malini Shankar

Blood thirst – at best an opportune alibi – cannot win the war against drugs

Blood thirst – at best an opportune alibi – cannot win the war against drugs

It is tough to heal when the State – the guarantor of civil safety turns murderer. If Indonesia is serious in wiping out the drugs scourge, then it will do well to investigate with the help of the reprieved convict Mary Jane Veloso to net the traffickers who pushed her to be a courier. Mary Jane’s handlers in Manila pricked by their conscience surrendered to police quite literally at the eleventh hour. Executing her too will destroy the remaining goodwill and legitimacy of Indonesian Government’s war against drugs.

Indonesia is not alone in the war against drugs. The unseen enemy is most tough to get. It is only the unfortunate, impoverished, abused, insecure, unemployed people who resort to drugs to overcome these socio economic maladies. Broken homes lead to victims of emotional sexual and physical abuse who are preyed by drug lords. Poverty rides pillion. No State can ever remedy these ills.

Having said that, international drug mafia cannot operate in isolation, they are in connivance with corrupt elements. There are obviously glaring loopholes in border check-posts, customs counters and failure of intelligence; smokescreens of budget / backpacking hotels in havens like Kuta in Bali should be the starting point of robust anti-drug offensives.  

There was an allegation earlier this year that the Judges in the trial of the Bali Nine sought bribes for a lesser sentence. This needs to be investigated by international agencies for Indonesia to come clean on its judicial credibility.

Plugging these loopholes in Indonesian archipelago with 17408 Islands is all the more challenging. But sealing these loopholes is the long term corrective measure, till then blood thirst like this morning’s summary mass execution will only serve to further animosity and lead to a more unequal world order.

Indonesia can collaborate with ASEAN and SAARC countries and seek the help of Interpol to stymie the bud of drugs trafficking. In comparison blood lust of executions was not just barking up the wrong tree, but was cruel, unnecessary and serves no purpose at all.  Death sentence has not been a deterrent to any of the ills of the New World Order post IInd World War.

One cannot help wondering would this have been the outcome if there was, god forbid an Israeli or an American citizen (none should be subjected to capital punishment) amongst the convicted foreigners? The fact that a French citizen - one of the convicted prisoners - got EU warning issued to Government of Indonesia if executed is not lost to observers.

For the alleged Bali Nine Ring leaders the thrill and euphoria of cheating the customs officials was not only monetarily lucrative (possibly) but also maybe emotionally. They have paid a dear price for such frivolous immaturity. But the tragedy was that reforming did not help them. Worse, for Indonesia, the State has lost the best advocates against drug wars, the best source of intelligence to combat drug lordism. Surely those who connived – possibly police or Customs officials in Bali are relieved that their secrets have been covered by the lids of satin covered coffins. Whether or not these socio economic and political issues are sorted the uncompromising rulers have to answer many questions to the electorate and to their Makers.

If such blood thirst instincts of the firing squads are fed upon by repeated executions, pray what might be the fate of any endangered wildlife in the second most biodiverse nation on Planet Earth?  

Kuta district in Bali Denpasar is a drug Mafia haven. Respectable tourists are shy of visiting Kuta with its discos, bars, and budget hotels where puffing is neither a crime nor can be traced. 

The smokescreen that the puffers created has made it both a fad and fantasy detested by the sober, respectable tourists. The causes that trigger drug addiction are far more challenging to overcome. Blood thirst – at best an opportune alibi - will only make matters worse.

Malini Shankar

If death penalty is deterrence then why penalise those who have reformed? An Open Letter to Indonesian President Mr. Joko Widodo

We understand that Indonesia is a magnet for tourists, that the sprawling archipelago is very vulnerable to drug peddling. 

The scourge of drugs needs to be eliminated socio economically. The same reasons that push the drug addicts to the edge pull the drug peddlers too. Battling against drugs is one of the biggest scourges of this day and age. Awareness, intelligence and enforcement are the effective responses.

The countries which clandestinely promoted drugs have now legalised usage of drugs under alibi of medical marijuana!

Death penalty will certainly not eliminate drug peddling. Even the parents of the Bali Nine (or ten – the numbers do not matter) cannot give life to their sons and daughters again. What right does any State then have to take away the lives of precious human beings?

Having to face a firing squad is akin to dying a thousand deaths even before the firing squad takes aim because, having to wait for the decisions on clemency is more torturous, if that can be imagined at all. 

The Filipino lady Mary Jane Fiesta Veloso who is the only woman amongst the Bali Nine to be sentenced – apparently called her family on Saturday, 25^th April to convey the news that she will be executed on 28^th April. Can we think of any worse analogy?  Can we ever put ourselves in the shoes of these human beings and can we imagine having to walk in chains to the execution pillar in Nusa Kambangan?  

I have not been able to sleep in peace ever since the ring leaders lost their mercy petition few weeks ago. I haven’t ever met these nine people but it disturbs me that any human being has to wait for someone to decide if he or she has to face the firing squad.

One of the Bali Nine is apparently a mental health disorder patient. Penalising him to death sentence is a gross violation of human rights. Want of Mens rea (intention to commit an offence in criminal jurisprudence) which is the true ingredient of a criminal offence entitles the offender to lenient views and fair consideration for lack of criminal intent – according to criminal jurisprudence. Can we imagine or can we condone a mentally ill patient being chained and taken to the execution pillar?

Mercy petitions’ depending on the President of a sovereign nation brings a whole gamut of issues into a complicated knot of human rights. Without untying these knots subjecting a reformed person to a death squad is not just medieval and feudal but begs a reasonable argument.

There is also the prospect of severely denting international relations. Repercussions on trade with Australia seem to be very big consequence that will hurt Indonesians.  

Effective enforcement includes punishing the guilty no doubt but not with death sentence, it should be rather a fair trial and its efficacy lies more in awareness creation. Publicity for awareness programmes help. Publicity of the ilk being given to the Bali Nine ring leaders is more like publicity given to trophy winners. Unfortunate.

Drug peddlers are thus not munitions in the war against drugs but must be utilised to garner intelligence and render more effective enforcement. That is a sure fire way of winning the war against drugs… and if the ring leaders – Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan – who have reformed were to be given the responsibility of the war against drugs, it is a win- win situation. None can give life to these death row convicts… Spare their lives Mr. President…hire these ring leaders  and their fellow death row convicts to wage the war against drugs. Do not pay them a salary or any honorarium but spare their lives Sir.

Malini Shankar, Photojournalist from Bangalore, a very disturbed and concerned Soul from Bangalore, India.