The geological perspective of climate change 

By Malini Shankar

Dr. M.N. Rajeevan the Director of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (http://www.tropmet.res.in/) in Pune tells this writer exclusively by email “The Chennai flood was caused due to continuous rainfall activity concentrated over coastal Tamil Nadu, around Chennai between 28th Nov – and 3rd December.

“However, rainfall during 01-02 December at Chennai (around 35 Cm) was an extraordinary event; Recent studies suggest that such heavy rainfall spells are increasing and may increase in future due to global warming. The Chennai flood is caused due to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). The above normal rainfall during the season was expected as this year is an El Nino year and we can expect above normal NE Monsoon rainfall during El Nino periods” adds Dr. Rajeevan.

El Nino or climate change, the third dimension of the Chennai floods is encroachment of water bodies (courtesy the political class) that act as natural drainage in coastal ecosystems. “T Nagar is an affluent residential suburb in Chennai today but it is built on ponds that were clogged by developers and builders between 1978 and 1981”.

“After the Mumbai flood of July 2005 a committee of which I was a member, recommended that water weirs have to be redesigned and constructed to drain high tide water that lashes the city. But this water continues to remain in the city’s cemented environment; - clogged and unable to discharge into the sea; no action seems to have been taken to mitigate such future disasters” said Dr. Arun Bapat noted geologist, speaking exclusively to this writer.

El Nino is a term that refers to the reversal of the normally anticlockwise cold Humboldt Current that hugs the Chilean coast in the South Pacific Ocean and coursing instead in a clockwise motion, thus reversing seasons corresponding to a latitude-longitude calibration right across the whole world.

El Nino is notorious for exacerbating weather systems bringing unseasonal weather almost around the whole world and in places where there is no unseasonal weather, the weather heaves gargantuan impacts. Thorough documentation is the first step towards preparedness.

El Nino exacerbates all hydrometeorological calamities - Avalanches, Blizzards, Cloudbursts, Coastal Incursion, Cyclones, Droughts, Desertification, (differential impact of) El Niño Southern Oscillation, Epidemics, Floods, Flash Floods, Famine, Forest Fires, Fog, Hailstorm Landslides, Mudslides, sand storm, Sea surge, Storms, squalls, thunderstorms and urban floods. Tsunamis triggered by ice berg melt and seamount explosions may also construe hydrometeorological disasters by definition atleast. Overground peat emissions in Indonesia spawn forest fires; and fog in Indonesia being exacerbated by El Nino events of 1998 and 2015 has been documented.

Understanding geological phenomena like El Nino helps documentation so we know better in the future. Sea level rise corresponds to the sinking of riparian deltas thanks to the deposition of silt say the purists.

Quantifying the Subterranean peat emissions of methane from deep underground by source will strengthen the case for reduction in emissions. The melting permafrost formed in Siberia 11,000 years ago is developing massive sinkholes with one being recorded as 70 metres deep and 600 metres in diametre. Hydrometeorological disasters will have increasingly debilitating impact on vulnerable communities and Island States in the decades ahead if emission targets are not met.

That the geological perspective of climate change is significant (http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teacherpage/) was also supported by a study of the Earth and Environment, University of Leeds which quantified the emissions from Iceland’s Bardarbunga volcanic eruption of summer 2014 @ 120,000 tons of sulphur dioxide gas per day at the onset of its eruption completely outdoing the industrial emissions in Europe. According to the NASA website on volcanoes’ connection to Climate change ((http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teacherpage/) this is because sulphur dioxide is cooling in comparison to CO and CO₂ emissions that obtain from industrialisation and vehicular emissions.

According to a new study on the subject -- published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023638/full -- the volcano's toxic emissions bested the average amount of sulphur dioxide produced by European industry, by a large margin.

“The eruption discharged lava at a rate of more than 200 cubic metres per second. In the study, we were concerned with the quantity of sulphur dioxide emissions, with numbers that are equally astonishing: In the beginning, the eruption emitted about eight times more sulphur dioxide per day than is emitted from all man-made sources in Europe per day” Dr Anja Schmidt School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds said in a press release (http://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2015/volcano-230915). Its significance lies in emphasising the natural, benign sources of global cooling like volcanic emissions.

So does it mean that man-made emissions can be overwhelmed by volcanic emissions? Climate scientists aver and with good reason that anthropocentric emissions of CO₂ is hundred times more than volcanic emissions on a year to year basis. It is a thin line of distinction that differentiates the emissions from steam and water vapour in the atmosphere. While volcanic emissions of SO₂ cools the atmosphere, <1% of CO₂ from volcanic emissions warm the atmosphere according to a NASA website article (http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teafrpage/)

There are many other examples of volcanological perspective of climate change. Lake Toba’s super volcanic eruption 74000 years ago robbed the earth of sun rays triggering the Ice Age.

http://volcano.si.edu/Photos/full/119067.jpg

Krakatau super volcanic eruption in the Java Straits in August 1883 triggered a short term climate change globally, inducing spectacular sunsets on the Chesapeake Bay near Washington DC on the East Coast of the United States for months after the super volcanic eruption of 1883.

In Bengal in India the Sun could not be sighted for a decade. “But a decade after the Krakatau super volcanic explosion”, - seismologists – like Dr. Arun Bapat allude to the transient nature of short term climate change – “wherever the ash of Krakatau had fallen, the agricultural lands became very fertile for six to eight years following the volcanic eruption”.

The Tambora super volcanic eruption in Sumbawa in Indonesia triggered the Year Without a Summer in Canadian Eastern Sea Board in 1815 - 16. It took a decade for the global climate to stabilise after Tambora’s eruption.

Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in the Philippines in October 1991 cooled the planet by a significant  1⁰ C, clearly establishing the link between global weather and volcanism. “During the 1900s there were three large eruptions that caused the entire planet to cool down by as much as 1°C. Volcanic cooling persist for only 2 to 3 years because the aerosols ultimately fall out of the stratosphere and enter the lower atmosphere where rain and wind quickly disperse them”. (http://ete.cet.edu/gcc/?/volcanoes_teacherpage/)

Climate scientists worry at the rapid pace of glacial retreats triggered by fossil fuel emissions and anthropocentric triggers like vehicular emissions. It only underscores the need for planned development - a challenge to the political elites in the current World Order. But geologists are sceptical of glacial retreat being triggered by anthropocentric emissions.

 “Last Glacial Maximum Period is also a matter for study. It has been observed that most of the glaciation – there is evidence to suggest that major glacial advancement happened 50 – 55000 years ago, but it is still being worked out, but after that period there have been 3 – 4 periods of glaciations and de-glaciation. Glacial advancement and recession is a climate change cycle. It is not happening for the first time, we have those records. There is a geological cycle to it…” says Professor Rameshwar Bali Associate Professor of Geology at the Centre of Advanced Studies in Geology, Lucknow University.  

“…For us in the Indian subcontinent global warming is not as bad as global cooling because then the monsoons and economy will be severely affected. Monsoons happen because of summer warming but if the summer temperatures cool, monsoons are affected, impairing our economy and the whole cycle of seasons in Asia. So global cooling is more dangerous to tropical countries as the entire economic cycle will be affected by global cooling and inadequate monsoons. Entire Indian Ocean rim countries will be affected” says Professor Bali during a discussion with this writer for my book research: “Preparing for the Day After” (https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=EbzkBQAAQBAJ)

https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=EbzkBQAAQBAJ

Retired Dean of Institute of Socio Economic Change (http://www.isec.ac.in/) Professor R. S. Deshpande says “modelling micro climate for long period average is difficult given that micro climate itself is affected by terrain, waterscape, landscape, humidity, precipitation (rainfall / snowfall) wind speeds etc. Lat long calibration of long term global climate is correspondingly diverse and challenging. Climate change has over the millennia shaped climate change adaptation - change in cropping patterns and consumption of agricultural produce”.  

The earth’s axis varies between 22⁰ and 24.5⁰ according to the Milankovitch Cycle http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Milankovitch/).  Milutin Milankovitch, a prisoner of Stalinist Russia in Siberia during the 2nd World War hypothesized that the speed of the earth’s revolution on its elliptical orbit is altered by the velocity of the earth’s rotation on its axis once in about 41000 years triggering a change in the angle of the earth’s tilt from an elliptical to circular orbit… thus making climate change inevitable. 

This change in the tilt of its axis alters the amount of Sun’s radiation falling on earth – accounts for change in seasons drastically in the middle and higher latitudes (Our Changing Climate Fall 1994 – Volume 4 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/RTN4.pdf) by Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington. Such changes inevitably have impact on zoological and biological diversity.

Zoological perspective of climate change and its impact in South Asia

Speaking exclusively to this writer, Professor R. Sukumar of the Centre for Ecological Sciences at the premier Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, said “Climate change is an ongoing phenomenon over the past millions of years.  Between the Pleistocene Era (around 2.6 million years ago to about 10,000 years ago) which marks the beginning of the Holocene era there were about 25 periods of glaciation and inter glaciation with warmer climes lasting shorter periods.

The Last Glacial Maximum being the coldest period of glaciation occurred about 20,000 years ago. The cooling trend would have started much before that. Cold periods were also arid periods as rainfall declined. During such cold periods the tropical moist forests would have shrunk or contracted to small areas. … These places are referred to as Pleistocene Refugia. In India only two such shrunk places were there … in the extreme southwest and northeast of the subcontinent. Elephants were confined to these refugia during extremely cold periods.

The rest of India was arid scrub land or savanna ecosystems supporting fauna such as ostriches that can thrive in such ecosystems … (incidentally, giraffes were found in the subcontinent during the early Pleistocene while tigers entered the subcontinent from the Far East only after the climate warmed up after the Last Glacial Maximum - … somewhere between 20000 to 10000 years ago). This global warming would have facilitated an expansion of tropical moist forests on account of strengthening of the monsoon, and thus these more productive ranges of habitats would have supported a somewhat different faunal diversity.”

Mammals like apes, antelopes, bats, cheetahs, wild dogs, elephants,  rhinos, wild dogs, hippos, giraffe, birds like ostriches, reptiles like snakes, crocodiles, etc have all been documented by studies of Kurnool Caves by G.L. Badam et al (http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/127/1272188698.pdf). Interestingly Asian Elephants started moving out of Pleistocene Refugia in extreme southwest (Southern Western Ghats) only when the climate became warmer supporting tropical broad leaved forests.

It seems like the fauna found in Africa today were all once endemic to the Indian subcontinent too, but have gone locally extinct … as a geomorphological adaptation of climate change.

What is not so easy to comprehend is the cyclical pattern of El Nino. The pattern of the notorious El Nino cycles desperately needs to be studied accurately, if only to be prepared for the catastrophic impact the geological cycle has on agriculture, fishing, food security and global economy. Given its varying cycles and its differential impacts on micro climate right across the world, modelling El Nino triggered extreme weather globally has become the greatest challenge of our times.

Could it be that volcanic eruptions in the South Pacific Ocean plausibly determine the course of currents accounting for reversing the normally anticlockwise course of the Humboldt Current on the west coast of Chile in the South Pacific? It thus alters the normal course of hydrometeorological cycles right across the world offsetting the hydrology and currents in each Latitude and Longitude… accounting for the variations in agro meteorology, fisheries, shipping, and global economy.

The role of seamounts in the South Pacific Ocean in warming the waters of the South Pacific Ocean  and also in reversing the normally anti clockwise cold Humboldt Current to a clockwise course / rotation demands credible attention too (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/15/do-underwater-volcanoes-have-an-effect-on-enso/).

It is only when we understand the geological perspective of climate change can we do accurate justice to mitigation.

© Pictures courtesy Global Volcanism Programme of the Smithsonian Institutions, and Text by 

Malini Shankar

Finally some legal solution to death penalty

India’s Law Commission report is expected to oppose death penalty

The Law Commission report pending submission of  (on 31.08.2015) and acceptance / by the Government of India is reported to have recommended abolition of capital punishment except in cases of terrorism. Though it does not require graphic definitions, legally, it helps to define classes and tenor of tenor.  Given the shades of state sponsored terrorism and non-state actors, the lines between nationalism economic exploitation and traitor-ship / martyrdom blur. Thus definitions certainly help; even if such definitions need period reviews and improvisations.

Given that death penalty has never been an effective deterrent, instead abrogates human rights and justice, it serves the purpose to explore alternative means to serve deterrence. When a person has committed a cognisable offence and is convicted, the rule of law is indeed upheld.  Society is secured, democratic principles are put to robust practise. But death penalty takes away the right to life of the convict. That is not justice, rather vendetta.

So that brings us to the argument what about the life / lives of those that the convict damaged / killed? Even in the case of a premeditated murder the victim is unaware of the fate awaiting him / her. In the most unfortunate twist of fate the victim / deceased survivor bore the brunt of the perpetrator’s vicious behaviour. But will putting him / her – that is the perpetrator - to death serve the purpose of deterrence or justice? No, not really, death penalty is only vindictive emotional knee jerk reaction guaranteed to ensure that the ills plaguing the society will never be cured.

Pardon me, I am not justifying any such condemnable behaviour but am sincerely trying to understand what causes deviant behaviour in some people. If the causes are not addressed the symptomatic manifestation will sustain and in turn that may only sustain death penalty.  I am aware that those opposed to abolition of death penalty will spew venom at me and question me why I shouldn’t subject myself to rape or if I have felt the anger and helplessness felt by the family members of someone who has been murdered. But here, I am trying to address the emptiness of vengeance.

What prompted the criminal to do what he / she did? In the case of drug peddling - broken homes invariably lead to drug addiction and then drug peddling. In the case of rape, gender verbal abuse and emotional abuse in the tender years of childhood trigger violent behaviour. Drug peddlers feed on and are fed by drug addicts. So that is a vicious cycle.  By putting to death the convicts does the victim get justice? No: Only a sense of emptiness without purpose permeates the soul.

Closure? Getting closure is significantly connected to cultural norms. The Hindus and the Buddhists often ascribe their fate to Karma. Christians forgive conscientiously the Muslims inherit the law “eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth” from the Civilisation of Mesopotamia in Babylon where Islam took root in a later day and age.

Child rearing was never easy. Parenting skills are all the more challenged in an unequal world order prevalent in society. Building emotional resilience through inculcation of ideals, yet making the child aware of the pitfalls of perfection is the challenge for parents.

So now let us address the needs of the innocent victims. Victims must get state support –emotional counselling, rehabilitation, economic assistance to victims of violent crime including policy support for job reservations, medical treatment reintegration assistance, and insurance.

Convicts must be allowed to see the treatment and reintegration of the victims while they – the convicts are punished. That way justice is done.

Death penalty is only vindictive, appropriate for emotional reactions and serves no purpose, but at the same time, the convict’s right to life is suspended. Yes what about the right to life of the victim? Yes it is unpardonable that anyone’s life with dreams and hopes can be snatched away at the will of a crook or demented soul. It is unfair to the family of the victim too. But neither the victim nor the family of the victim can get closure out of vendetta. But the perpetrator must be “taught” to value life of fellow human beings and animals. For this atleast he / she must be allowed to live and reform.

It is practical to deport all death row convicts from all countries to a life in prison in any uninhabited Island where a UN / ICRC monitored penal colony / settlement can be established. Local fishermen and indigenous people can be given opportunities to ward, feed and securely monitor the convicts. Convicts must have rights to visitation and medical treatment, food, clothing, reading material and visits by family without any further indulgence whatsoever; but should be punished without recourse to further legal aid / appeal. The death row convicts should be allowed access to basic / simple food, communication and clothing. The time spent in such isolation is guaranteed to bring remorse. It’s a greater punishment than death penalty.

Social entrepreneurs, counsellors, human rights activists, the Gandhi Peace Foundation http://www.gandhipeacefoundation.org/ are the most appropriate resource people for such sustainable engagement. One reformed prisoner can substitute an army’s intelligence networks effectively in mitigating crime… for death penalty is and always will be a miscarriage of justice. 

Malini Shankar

What are the alternatives to death penalty?

What are the alternatives to death penalty?

Earlier this year Indonesia shocked the world with a nasty manifestation of lifting the moratorium on death penalty. Bali Nine’s 8 members were mercilessly executed in April, and some more were executed in January 2015. “There is something nice about final justice but justice is far better” goes the legal adage.

The world was shocked to hear and witness mass murder in the name of justice. I am haunted by the melancholic, helpless eyes of one convicted death row prisoner: Myuran Sukumaran, an Australian citizen of Sri Lankan origin who had reformed by spawning his talent and held immense promise for constructive engagement.

His reformation was an inspiration to the world that watched so helplessly his mother’s pleas for mercy in the days and hours before he was executed. Advocate General Prasetyo actually said “this time the executions were well planned so it went off smoothly without glitches”.

What offends observers is that political will to exemplify deterrence has failed miserably. Drug hauls continue unabated in Indonesia and the world over even as many states in the United States are legalising usage of “medical marijuana”; So obviously – Mr. President Widodo, the deterrent was futile.

In my first appeal on a blog (http://malinishankarphotojournalist.blogspot.in/) on 27^th April 2015 I had argued about the futility of death penalty especially in the case of reformed convicts. In my follow up on Bali Nine executions (http://malinishankarphotojournalist.blogspot.in/2015/06/following-up-on-bali-nine-executions.html) I questioned again the reasons for executions:

·       

•         The world would like to know if drug peddling has decreased in Bali Indonesia, in the days since the execution of the Bali Nine (Eight)?
• ·Have there been any arrests of drug peddlers anywhere in Indonesia? If yes the world would like to know of these developments with as much transparency and publicity that was given to the trophy hunting in the execution of the Bali Nine / Eight. 
• Is there any quantifiable seizures of psychotropic substances in the days since the execution of the Bali Eight? Is this more than usual or less than usual? 
• ·How does the seizures compare to those before the Wendepunkt ( the watershed event) of mass executions of 29.04.2015?
• ·       Has there been a decrease of drug related violence or mortalities since the execution of the Bali Eight? President Widodo was quoted as saying that more than 1800 people die due to drug related violence in all of Indonesia’s sprawling archipelago put together every single day.
• ·      Has Indonesia succeeded in decreasing the drug menace to some extent atleast? 
• ·      Has Indonesia been able to identify those in the Enforcement Agencies in Bali’s notorious Kuta district or customs officials in Denpasar International Airport who may have connived with the two Australian “ring leaders”?
• ·         Has there been any investigation into allegations that some judges in the case of the Bali Nine asked for bribe in exchange for a lighter sentence?

Military personnel in battle gear descended from military trucks to mobilise the handcuffed death row convicts Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan to Nusa Kambangan with much publicity bordering on schizophrenic trophy hunting. We have some answers to the questions raised in my follow up blog:

1. ·         Indonesian authorities seized 352 kg of heroin in Jakarta reported Jakarta Post on 16^th July 2015.
2.         Earlier on 24.06.2015 South Seberang Prai police seized 42kg of drugs worth more than RM 4 million and detained three people, including a Vietnamese woman as http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015/06/24/Crime-Drugs-RM4mil/ site cites.
3.         One of the biggest hauls of drugs (about 360 kg of methamphetamines from China on 15^th July 2015) was reported by Coconuts Jakarta (http://jakarta.coconuts.co/2015/07/15/biggest-drug-bust-last-5-years-police-seize-shipment-360-kg-methamphetamines-china)

So Mr. President Widodo death penalty to reformed regretting convicts was the easy blood thirsty ploy for political brownie points; nothing else. 

In United States, China Iran, India, Afghanistan Pakistan Saudi Arabia, Singapore Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam, executions are frequent in varying degrees; statistics are hard to come by in states like China and Iran.

Media today affords us a space to engage constructively to arrive at plausible solutions instead of emotional breast beating. We need to make use of the space to find solutions, not just to the crimes like drug peddling, terrorism, gender based violence and heinous, violent crimes, but to find alternatives to death penalty. The need for abolition of death penalty arises because:

1.      

1. None has the right to take away another human being’s life because all are born equal.
2. 2None, not even the parents of the condemned prisoner can give him or her - their lives back to them. So the State has no business to execute someone. 
3. 3.      On the other hand keeping them alive with life terms allows psychologists, sociologists, and human rights practitioners - opportunities for research, investigations and evolution of political thought in this context.
4. Prisoners are certainly not fodder for researchers but they are not cannon fodder either.  Sparing their lives offers opportunities for the condemned prisoners to regret their crimes…. The worst possible psychological punishment to offenders. This should satiate those seeking vengeance in the name of justice…? 
5. 5.      Death penalty has never solved any of the problems that brought these convicts to their hapless hopeless positions.

6.  Attempts must be made by the mainstream majority to solve factors that lead to such crimes: economic disparities, alienation, suppression corruption exploitation etc.

This is not to condone any crime. But death penalty neither serves as a deterrence against crimes nor does it prevent recurrence of crimes… much as it is so unfortunate.

We in the media need to engage in introspection to investigate the causes for such crimes so we can then try to solve them. Naïveté maybe, but better than mass murder of the Indonesian variety of justice!

©Malini Shankar 

Another doable alternative takes us back to history. The British colonised India’s Andaman Nicobar Islands to establish a penal colony. Is it not possible for the United Nations officially to ask Republic of France / United Kingdom / Portugal to lease out land on the safe side of the volcano in either French Southern Indian Ocean’s Antarctic Lands / Reunion Islands / British Indian Ocean Territory /  Cae Verde to establish under the aegies of the Geneva Convention a universal penal colony in their Island territories for the world’s death row convicts?

Of course nation states’ will argue that their justice will not be served. But a UN managed penal colony can certainly allow for legal systems of Nation States to execute sentences without manifesting as death penalty because it is a gross violation of human rights, it is a guarantee that only the United Nations can assure, guarantee and monitor.  All death row convicts from all countries ought to be moved to such a penal colony without future legal reprieve and sentenced to life sentences, rigorous imprisonment or something similar, stopping short of death penalty. Till appeals are exhausted democratic nations can imprison their convicts in their national jails before mobilising them to a UN managed penal colony maybe…?

Infact Indonesia’s geography would qualify it best for the archipelago nation to offer any uninhabited Island to the United Nations for the establishment of such a penal colony. But the country’s recent history casts doubts for the safety, security, and credibility of such a penal colony in its territory.

Or maybe Indonesia can as a gesture of remorse dedicate the prison facilities at Nusa Kambangan to such a penal colony in memory of those who were recently unjustly killed? Hopefully change will not be resisted in the future…? I know unfortunately that I am being naïve in thinking of the country’s remorse…

Malini Shankar, photojournalist, Bangalore, India

Following up on the Bali Nine Executions

Following up on the Bali Nine Executions

It has been about 42 days since Indonesia executed eight death row convicts who were convicted on charges of drug peddling. Among the eight death row convicts were two reformed prisoners who showed and shamed the world how to come to terms with unjust sentence that would exterminate them. There was also one mentally ill schizophrenic foreign national who understood neither the import of the sentence nor was he aware of preparations to execute him, even after he accepted with a signature his execution command.

In the meanwhile Pakistan has executed a man the State accused of murdering a woman and her two sons when he was only 15. This according to Amnesty International was a forced confession on the juvenile. The US executed a death row convict and has convicted Djokar Tsarnaev of the Boston Bombing for death penalty. There are no available statistics for executions in China and Iran for the same period. There are no official statistics of executions in IS ruled areas or Syria either.

Let us make no mistake, none condoned or sympathised with the convicted drug peddlers. It was the unjust summary executions that too of reformed convicts and a mental health victim that so offended the world.

Now the world seeks answers from Indonesia.

·       

•  The world would like to know if drug peddling has decreased in Bali Indonesia, in the days since the execution of the Bali Nine (Eight)?
•         Have there been any arrests of drug peddlers anywhere in Indonesia? If yes the world would like to know of these developments with as much transparency and publicity that was given to the trophy hunting in the execution of the Bali Nine / Eight.  
•          Is there any quantifiable seizures of psychotropic substances in the days since the execution of the Bali Eight? Is this more than usual or less than usual?  
•          How does the seizures compare to those before the Wendepunkt ( the watershed event) of mass executions of 29.04.2015?
•          Has there been a decrease of drug related violence or mortalities since the execution of the Bali Eight? President Widodo was quoted as saying that more than 1800 people die due to drug related violence in all of Indonesia’s sprawling archipelago put together.
•          Has Indonesia succeeded in decreasing the drug menace to some extent atleast?  
•          Has Indonesia been able to identify those in the Enforcement Agencies in Bali’s notorious Kuta district or customs officials in Denpasar International Airport who may have connived with the two Australian “ring leaders”?
•          Has there been any investigation into allegations that some judges in the case of the Bali Nine asked for bribe in exchange for a lighter sentence? 
• 
  

Official statements from the office of the President of Indonesia and from the office of the Attorney General will help in Indonesia’s march towards a robust democracy… and also to restore its global goodwill.  By ushering in a watershed in treatment of death row convicts, Indonesia has an opportunity now to show to the world how to discontinue the barbaric punishment of execution.

Human rights activists join in a chorus to appeal to the sovereign Head of State of Indonesia to consider the above points before executing other convicted drug offenders. It thus follows naturally that Indonesia’s sovereignty is respected if the convicted drug peddlers facing execution maybe spared their lives and considered for life terms instead. Because…. None, not even their parents can give them their lives back. Humanity reaffirms the faith of those who reform for the better… except in the tragic case of the two of the convicted Bali Nine maybe…

Malini Shankar  

There is universal merit in Yoga

The reported opposition  to observing 21^st June as International Yoga Day by the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) (http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/muslim-law-board-says-no-to-yoga/article7292638.ece) is uncalled for. The AIMPLB's apprehension that Surya Namaskar offers obeisance to the Sun God is reminiscent of Hindu Idol worship is a bit misguided. At best Surya Namaskar traces its origins to paganistic rituals. 

The universal merit of yoga lies in the fact that it augments fitness and health indices for people of all ages, walks of life and shades of health. Regardless of race, caste, wealth colour, creed or diet, yoga offers a universal and equal opportunity to refurbish health and fitness for all, something that needs to be inculcated in school going children from a young age. The merits of entire generations learning and practicing yoga has infinite advantages on the health index alone.

Imagine if school going children practice yoga daily from a young age till they are 65. It almost guarantees protection from asthma, cancer, cholesterol, diabetes, hyper tension, kidney disorders, heart diseases, orthopaedic issues, multiple sclerosis, nervous disorders, thyroid, tumours, xenophobia etc. It is also proven to be good for people in the reproductive age bracket. The spiritual contribution of yoga is proving to be the best medicine for mental health disorders … for – in simple words– it offers the best short cut to discipline, peace and platonic platitude!   

In this attempt Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts at universalising yoga as a distinct cultural and traditional medicine contribution of India on the world stage for future generations has not just received UN Secretary General’s backing and aquiescence, but needs the support of all institutions around the whole planet in an apolitical spirit for health cheer.

Surya Namaskar comprises of a set of ahsanas or yogic postures that offer exercise to all parts and organs of the body, but benefits the heart, the most.  It is not just an obeisance to the Sun. If Muslims are offended by Surya Namaskar, there are any number of other ahsanas or postures to learn and practise for the health benefits of the younger generation of Muslims.

The AIMPLB should thus not oppose teaching of yoga to school and college students. Learning yoga and other community participation from a school age helps children integrate better emotionally intellectually and physically too.

For its part the Government’s guidelines to schools and yoga masters should be not to make Surya Namaskar mandatory… given the diverse ahsanas of Surya Namaskar, offering diversity to students would be in the spirit of diversity too. There is no need for nationalism or any other sentiment in the imparting of yoga either. Yoga teachers must guide students to learn all but practise only those ahsanas that are best suited for each of them individually. It is thus futile to oppose learning / teaching of yoga in schools / colleges.

Malini Shankar

It is possible to forecast earthquakes

It is possible to forecast earthquakes

I must at the outset admit that I am only a writer, I am no geologist but I have a very deep interest in seismology and earthquakes. I have studied earthquakes and to some extent cyclones with obsessive fascination. I wish to share my observations and hope that geologists and seismologists will be able to work on what I suppose to be a vague theory.

Big magnitude earthquakes occur either in the early hours of or atleast before noon on the 26^th of the month or atleast around the 26^th of the month. 11^th and 26^th of the months seem to be favourites for release of seismic energy / rupture on fault lines). A startling realisation that the Bam earthquake (26.12.2003, Iran), Bhuj earthquake (26.01.2001, Bhuj, Gujarat) and the Andaman Sumatra Earthquake (26.12.2004, Sumatra) occurred in the wee hours or atleast before noon led me to the historical database of earthquakes on USGS; It became apparent that the Bio-Bio earthquake occurred on 27^th of February 2010, the Good Friday Great Alaska Sound Earthquake happened on 28^th March 1964, and so on…

The 60 years geological cycle also needs to be studied with seriousness after the Asian Tsunami of December 2004. 62 years before that a similar destructive tsunami following a mega earthquake had smashed Indonesia and Andaman Nicobar Islands… in 1942. And approximately 60 years before that another great seismic event occurred… the cataclysmic eruption of the Krakatau volcano in Indonesia led to violent tsunamis in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and resulted in short term climate change. Similarly the Chile earthquake of 27th February 2010 – that is - the Bio-Bio earthquake - occurred almost 60 years after the devastating M 9.5 earthquake of May 22nd 1960. So will the Alaskan Mega Earthquake of March 27 1964 with a magnitude of 9.2 repeat its scale of destruction in 2024? It doesn’t hurt to be prepared right? 

Similarly the 11^th of any month is also a favourite for release of seismic energy. M 7, M 6 earthquakes have occurred on or around the 26^th of the month. The following data has been sourced from USGS’s historical earthquake database.

·         26 December 1939 Turkey (M.7.8),

·         26th November 1942 Turkey (M 7.1)

·         26.May 1957 Turkey (M 7.1)

·         26th April 1959 (Taiwan region (M 7.5)

·         26th January 2001 Bhuj Earthquake (M 7.6)

·         26th May 2003 - Seven Trees, California - M 3.8,

·         26th May 2003 Halmahera Indonesia ( M 7.0),

·         26th May 2003 Muir Beach California (M.3.8),

·         26th December 2003 Bam Earthquake (M 6.6),

·         26th December 2004 Sumatran Mega Earthquake (M 9.1),

·         26 February 2005 Simeulue Indonesia (M 6.8),

·         26. September 2005 Peru (M 7.5)

·         26th May 2006 Java Indonesia (M 6.3)

·         26th December 2006 - Taiwan region - M 6.9, 

·         26th December 2006 - Taiwan region - M 7.1,

·         26th July 2007 Molucca Sea (M 6.9)

·         26th September 2007 Papua New Guinea, (M 6.8)

·         26th December 2007 Alaskan Earthquake, (M6.4)

·         26th April 2008 Nevada USA (M 5.0)

·         27th February 2010 Bio-Bio Chile (M 8.8)

I have calibrated the following data from Google Earth / Digital Globe

·         28.09.1998 Java Indonesia (M 6.6)

·         12^th September 2007 Southern Sumatra ( M 8.5)

·         13^th February 2001 Southern Sumatra ( M 7.4)

·         14^th August 1999 Southern Sumatra (M 6.4)

·         12^th December 1992, Flores, Indonesia (M 7.5)

·         26^th January 2006 Banda Sea (M 7.6)

It does not mean earthquakes do not strike on other days. Neither does it mean that smaller magnitude earthquakes do not occur on 11^th or 26^th of the months or around these days. They do. But the likelihood of big earthquakes striking on or around the 11^th and 26^th of the months is higher… going by the database of earthquakes.

In today’s advanced technological era it should be possible for seismologists and geologists to measure the build-up of seismic pressure in fault zones regularly. Monitoring the build-up of seismic pressure should be – logically speaking – able to pint the likely rupture points or the epicentre, and the likely date of rupture. Given that the dates are presupposed to be either 11^th or 26^th of a month if vigorous monitoring is undertaken it should be possible to calibrate a potential rupture zone and an educated guestimate of the magnitude of an earthquake.

Of course there are other pointers too.  Volcanic eruptions are preceded by a series of seismic tremors as we learnt in Iceland last year before the Bardarbunga volcano exploded in August 2014. Other observers like Dr. Arunachalam Kumar theorise that mass strandings of cetaceans on continental shelves are a sure and ominous sign of an imminent earth

Source: GVP / Digital Globe / Smithsonian Institutions

quake.  There are documentation available that animal behaviour can be an early warning – a theory that has very recently gained scientists’ acquiescence. Oceanographers are researching about the change in ions above the oceans before a tsunamigenic earthquake is likely to strike.

Oceanographers in India’s INCOIS have succeeded in calibrating the estimated wave heights, time of arrival and path of a tsunami for earthquakes around the Indian coasts. They have done this by calibrating the latitude-longitude against the bathymetric profile of the seas around India. With such advances made all that is needed is political will to back the scientists. By utilising scientific applications, human development can be assured for it mitigates disaster risk… the kind less resilient communities like in Nepal or coastal fishers are ideal candidates for …

Critique, feedback and discussions welcome.

Thank you.  

Malini Shankar

Blood thirst – at best an opportune alibi – cannot win the war against drugs

Blood thirst – at best an opportune alibi – cannot win the war against drugs

It is tough to heal when the State – the guarantor of civil safety turns murderer. If Indonesia is serious in wiping out the drugs scourge, then it will do well to investigate with the help of the reprieved convict Mary Jane Veloso to net the traffickers who pushed her to be a courier. Mary Jane’s handlers in Manila pricked by their conscience surrendered to police quite literally at the eleventh hour. Executing her too will destroy the remaining goodwill and legitimacy of Indonesian Government’s war against drugs.

Indonesia is not alone in the war against drugs. The unseen enemy is most tough to get. It is only the unfortunate, impoverished, abused, insecure, unemployed people who resort to drugs to overcome these socio economic maladies. Broken homes lead to victims of emotional sexual and physical abuse who are preyed by drug lords. Poverty rides pillion. No State can ever remedy these ills.

Having said that, international drug mafia cannot operate in isolation, they are in connivance with corrupt elements. There are obviously glaring loopholes in border check-posts, customs counters and failure of intelligence; smokescreens of budget / backpacking hotels in havens like Kuta in Bali should be the starting point of robust anti-drug offensives.  

There was an allegation earlier this year that the Judges in the trial of the Bali Nine sought bribes for a lesser sentence. This needs to be investigated by international agencies for Indonesia to come clean on its judicial credibility.

Plugging these loopholes in Indonesian archipelago with 17408 Islands is all the more challenging. But sealing these loopholes is the long term corrective measure, till then blood thirst like this morning’s summary mass execution will only serve to further animosity and lead to a more unequal world order.

Indonesia can collaborate with ASEAN and SAARC countries and seek the help of Interpol to stymie the bud of drugs trafficking. In comparison blood lust of executions was not just barking up the wrong tree, but was cruel, unnecessary and serves no purpose at all.  Death sentence has not been a deterrent to any of the ills of the New World Order post IInd World War.

One cannot help wondering would this have been the outcome if there was, god forbid an Israeli or an American citizen (none should be subjected to capital punishment) amongst the convicted foreigners? The fact that a French citizen - one of the convicted prisoners - got EU warning issued to Government of Indonesia if executed is not lost to observers.

For the alleged Bali Nine Ring leaders the thrill and euphoria of cheating the customs officials was not only monetarily lucrative (possibly) but also maybe emotionally. They have paid a dear price for such frivolous immaturity. But the tragedy was that reforming did not help them. Worse, for Indonesia, the State has lost the best advocates against drug wars, the best source of intelligence to combat drug lordism. Surely those who connived – possibly police or Customs officials in Bali are relieved that their secrets have been covered by the lids of satin covered coffins. Whether or not these socio economic and political issues are sorted the uncompromising rulers have to answer many questions to the electorate and to their Makers.

If such blood thirst instincts of the firing squads are fed upon by repeated executions, pray what might be the fate of any endangered wildlife in the second most biodiverse nation on Planet Earth?  

Kuta district in Bali Denpasar is a drug Mafia haven. Respectable tourists are shy of visiting Kuta with its discos, bars, and budget hotels where puffing is neither a crime nor can be traced. 

The smokescreen that the puffers created has made it both a fad and fantasy detested by the sober, respectable tourists. The causes that trigger drug addiction are far more challenging to overcome. Blood thirst – at best an opportune alibi - will only make matters worse.

Malini Shankar

If death penalty is deterrence then why penalise those who have reformed? An Open Letter to Indonesian President Mr. Joko Widodo

We understand that Indonesia is a magnet for tourists, that the sprawling archipelago is very vulnerable to drug peddling. 

The scourge of drugs needs to be eliminated socio economically. The same reasons that push the drug addicts to the edge pull the drug peddlers too. Battling against drugs is one of the biggest scourges of this day and age. Awareness, intelligence and enforcement are the effective responses.

The countries which clandestinely promoted drugs have now legalised usage of drugs under alibi of medical marijuana!

Death penalty will certainly not eliminate drug peddling. Even the parents of the Bali Nine (or ten – the numbers do not matter) cannot give life to their sons and daughters again. What right does any State then have to take away the lives of precious human beings?

Having to face a firing squad is akin to dying a thousand deaths even before the firing squad takes aim because, having to wait for the decisions on clemency is more torturous, if that can be imagined at all. 

The Filipino lady Mary Jane Fiesta Veloso who is the only woman amongst the Bali Nine to be sentenced – apparently called her family on Saturday, 25^th April to convey the news that she will be executed on 28^th April. Can we think of any worse analogy?  Can we ever put ourselves in the shoes of these human beings and can we imagine having to walk in chains to the execution pillar in Nusa Kambangan?  

I have not been able to sleep in peace ever since the ring leaders lost their mercy petition few weeks ago. I haven’t ever met these nine people but it disturbs me that any human being has to wait for someone to decide if he or she has to face the firing squad.

One of the Bali Nine is apparently a mental health disorder patient. Penalising him to death sentence is a gross violation of human rights. Want of Mens rea (intention to commit an offence in criminal jurisprudence) which is the true ingredient of a criminal offence entitles the offender to lenient views and fair consideration for lack of criminal intent – according to criminal jurisprudence. Can we imagine or can we condone a mentally ill patient being chained and taken to the execution pillar?

Mercy petitions’ depending on the President of a sovereign nation brings a whole gamut of issues into a complicated knot of human rights. Without untying these knots subjecting a reformed person to a death squad is not just medieval and feudal but begs a reasonable argument.

There is also the prospect of severely denting international relations. Repercussions on trade with Australia seem to be very big consequence that will hurt Indonesians.  

Effective enforcement includes punishing the guilty no doubt but not with death sentence, it should be rather a fair trial and its efficacy lies more in awareness creation. Publicity for awareness programmes help. Publicity of the ilk being given to the Bali Nine ring leaders is more like publicity given to trophy winners. Unfortunate.

Drug peddlers are thus not munitions in the war against drugs but must be utilised to garner intelligence and render more effective enforcement. That is a sure fire way of winning the war against drugs… and if the ring leaders – Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan – who have reformed were to be given the responsibility of the war against drugs, it is a win- win situation. None can give life to these death row convicts… Spare their lives Mr. President…hire these ring leaders  and their fellow death row convicts to wage the war against drugs. Do not pay them a salary or any honorarium but spare their lives Sir.

Malini Shankar, Photojournalist from Bangalore, a very disturbed and concerned Soul from Bangalore, India.